What could the future hold for UK airports and air transport?
The Aviation 2040 report, published this week by the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) in conjunction with Arup, presents four provocative scenarios showing how UK air transport and airport infrastructure could look in 2040.
- Vortex of despair - political flux, economic malaise, fear.
- Eco angst - peak oil, economic localisation, eco-awareness.
- Big stick - interventionist government, carbon rationing, economic prosperity in the South East.
- Laissez-faire - light touch government, regional prosperity, advanced climate change.
Aviation 2040 challenges government, politicians and industry to take a fresh approach to the long term development of the UK’s airports and their place in the wider transport system.
ICE believe that too much of the public and political discussion on airport infrastructure is short term and based around arguments for and against individual projects, with very little long term, strategic thinking.
The four scenarios are based on key social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) factors that could cause dramatic change to our airports and air transport sectors over the next 30 years.
These factors include changes in society’s attitudes to climate change and terrorist activity, rising UK emission levels, population growth, major technological advancements, changes in government leadership and economic conditions affecting jobs, disposable income and the cost of travel.
Peter Hansford, ICE Vice President, said: “These scenarios are not predictions for the future, rather they highlight the need for government, politicians and industry to develop new thinking to take account of the pressures that could dramatically transform air transport and airport infrastructure in the future.”
“The government’s last strategic policy document on aviation came out in 2003. There have been major developments since then, notably the economic crisis and revised climate change and emission reduction targets. It is time to open a serious debate about the need for a long term national strategy on the UK’s airport infrastructure – one that secures the best outcomes for society, the environment and the economy in the years to come.”
Marcus Morrell, Arup Foresight Innovation and Incubation, said: “The Aviation 2040 scenarios provide a robust framework for an informed discussion about the future of UK aviation and airport infrastructure. They are not predictions, instead they represent a range of possible outcomes that may play out over the coming decades. Although fictitious, they are drawn from the expert opinions of key industry stakeholders and captured through Arup facilitated workshops. The possible strategy actions developed point to the need to take a more holistic look at mobility before certain critical constraints take hold.”
ICE and Arup believe now is the ideal time to instigate a serious debate about the future development of UK airport infrastructure.