As a part of their work with the Bouncing Forward Plan, the East Scarborough Storefront sought technical support to better understand how climate‑related hazards affect the Kingston‑Galloway‑Orton Park (KGO) neighbourhood. The goal was to integrate a clear, place‑based climate risk assessment into the community‑led Plan, helping ensure future community strategies are informed, equitable, and responsive to the realities residents face during extreme events.

Arup conducted a semi-quantitative risk assessment specifically focused on four priority hazards: extreme heat, stormwater-induced flooding, storm-related power outages and wildfire smoke. Using neighbourhood-level hazard and vulnerability data, and insights from the East Scarborough Storefront’s extensive work with residents and community partners, we translated technical analysis into accessible, actionable inputs to guide the next phase of adaptation planning.

Climate emergencies are increasing in frequency and severity, and they disproportionately impact communities already facing systemic challenges. In KGO, the aging infrastructure and existing systemic inequities heighten vulnerability for many residents to repeated flooding, heatwaves during the summer and intense smoke. As such, it is vital for the community to build upon their existing strong connectedness to enhance their resilience to future extreme events.

Community led resilience and engagement

The Kingston‑Galloway‑Orton Park (KGO) neighbourhood is one of the most culturally diverse communities in Canada and a place of strong social connection and community leadership. At the same time, historic underinvestment and marginalization have increased the neighbourhood’s exposure to climate‑related hazards, prompting residents and community organizations to take proactive steps to strengthen local resilience.

Arup supported this work in partnership with the East Scarborough Storefront, a long-standing community hub that connects people, ideas, and resources while amplifying resident voices. Through our involvement in the Bouncing Forward initiative, we contributed technical expertise in a way that centred community experience and reinforced locally led resilience‑building efforts by KGO residents, community organizations and anchor institutions.

Neighbourhood-scale climate risk assessment

Arup was brought in by the East Scarborough Storefront to conduct a semi-quantitative climate risk assessment focused on hazards most relevant to the KGO neighbourhood. Through discussions with Storefront staff and their experience working closely with residents, four priority hazards were identified for further analysis: extreme heat, stormwater‑induced flooding, storm‑related power outages, and wildfire smoke.

Using available neighbourhood‑level hazard and vulnerability data, we assessed the potential impacts of these hazards on residents and infrastructure. The analysis was designed to provide actionable insights that could inform the next phase of the Bouncing Forward Plan, while remaining accessible and grounded in local context.

Informing action through the Bouncing Forward Plan

Insights from the climate risk assessment were incorporated into the Bouncing Forward Plan, helping shape the actions the community will focus on in 2026 as the plan continues to evolve. These actions include strengthening communication during extreme heat events, identifying critical community infrastructure, and expanding connections among local organizations and leaders.

This work provided an opportunity for Arup to learn from community experiences with climate events and to support neighbourhood‑level resilience planning. By contributing technical analysis alongside local knowledge, we helped translate climate risk into practical considerations that the community can continue to build on over time.

Partners & collaborators

Catalysts’ Circle / Gore Mutual Insurance / The Bouncing Forward steering committee / University of Toronto Scarborough / Toronto Zoo / U of T Committee on the Environment, Climate Change, and Sustainability (CECCS) / 12thirteen Design / Navyata Neeraj