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Pioneering model for low carbon debate

Jerman Cheung Jerman Cheung East Asia Press Office,Hong Kong
31 October 2012

Arup held a roundtable discussion today with top government officials and decision makers to have a fresh look at Taiwan's low carbon transition plans with a pioneering model.

The high-level meeting was joined by government officials and experts from various departments and research institutions, including Council for Economic Planning Development, Environment Protection Administration, Bureau of Energy, Industrial Development Bureau, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, Taiwan Research Institute, Institute for Information Industry, Taichung City Government, Industrial Technology Research Institute and New Taipei City Government.

Dr Simon Roberts, Associate Director of Arup, introduced the innovative 4see model, a combined economic and physical approach that looks at systematic interactions of an entire economy. The data-driven model brings together various factors of a national account including economic activity, capital stocks, employment, energy and balance of payments to project future scenarios and explore the impact of different investment choices.

To illustrate how the model works in the policy-making process, Dr Roberts took the UK economy as an example, and presented his latest research findings as well as what possible actions the model suggests for the UK government to reduce carbon emissions.

Dr Roberts also shared the initial results from a 4see model for Taiwan – a joint work with the Advanced Research Institute at Institute for Information Industry. By comparing the results of Taiwan with other economies, he explained how the model can provide development guidance for different national accounts.

Many governments around the world are setting out low carbon transition policies and plans with different departments working on their own measures to meet the targets. However, the consequences of one policy may ripple through to others and affect the whole economy. Sometimes the policies overlap or even contradict with each other, resulting in little effect. 4see is a unique, innovative model that brings all the components of an entire economy together to provide evidence-based projection and point out the way forward. ” Andrew Chan Andrew Chan Trustee and Senior Consultant

The 4see e model has been applied to the UK economy and is currently being used to analyse the economies of Taiwan and Australia. Many more governments are showing interest in this novel approach.