Arup’s vision for CO2 infrastructure aided European Commission strategic planning. The aim of the EC was to create Trans-European Networks Guidelines for Energy in 2011.
Databases of existing CO2 emitters and potential geological CO2 storage sites were developed. These built on previous studies, including GeoCapacity.
Future planning scenarios
Previous CO2 capture studies had failed to recognise that many existing CO2 sources may close or have different characteristics in future due to increased use of renewable energy and greater energy efficiency.
Arup reviewed existing published scenarios and developed three scenarios each for 2030 and 2050. Annual CO2 capture ranged from 50 to 800 million tonnes.
Blueprints for future CO2 infrastructure were developed using hydraulic model optimisation (including volumes, velocities and economics). These blueprints match sources – processes or activities that generate CO2, to sinks – reservoirs that use up CO2 as part of natural cycles.
Two scenarios were considered – one assuming both onshore and offshore underground storage was acceptable and the other with only offshore storage. This identified a potential investment of up to €20bn by 2050 and the importance of clusters, pipeline dynamics and common specifications.