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As part of a multi-year programme Transitioning to a Net Zero World led by Arup University’s Foresight team, we highlight three fundamental challenges, which continue to act as systemic barriers to a successful, at-scale global transition to net zero emissions.
This article is the second of a series, and it explores the challenge of understanding and influencing the complex systems underpinning the economic sectors we are aiming to decarbonise.
By now it is widely recognised that the pace of progress in addressing climate change has been too slow. Despite increasing pledges and targets, many factors continue to impede real impact on emissions following the otherwise high volume of net zero declarations by governments and businesses worldwide. Individual sectors of the economy – such as energy, manufacturing, buildings, transport, etc. – are the focus of national net zero pledges and plans. While there are significant interdependencies between these different sectors, they operate autonomously, with their own governance structures, industry bodies, and regulations.
Many of the key challenges required to decarbonise sectors and achieve net zero span different organisations within the same sector – sometimes referred to as ‘systemic’ issues. The crosscutting nature of these challenges implies that they often lack clear ownership and accountability for action across the sector.
What does complexity in sectors look like?
Transport is a sector that readily demonstrates this complexity. As one example, the San Francisco Bay Area’s transport system is often referred to as one of the most complex in the United States. San Francisco’s metropolitan region – the Bay Area – is home to approximately 30 transportation agencies, which together are responsible for operating buses, cable cars, trains and ferries. Each agency sets its own fares and service schedules, plans its system independently, has different funding sources, and has little real obligation to coordinate with other local transport agencies and deliver an integrated experience for the people regularly traversing the Bay Area’s nine counties and 101 local cities.
In some parts of the Bay Area, public transport provision is of high quality - reliable, affordable, and frequent. However, riders do face barriers, including unfamiliar maps and service schedules, multiple fares, schedules that are not coordinated for transferring, and long walks between connections. The highly variable user experience that stems from unintegrated services means many people who have access to a car opt to drive instead, resulting in higher transport emissions and traffic congestion for the region. Planning, funding, construction, and maintenance related to road infrastructure is again managed separately by local transportation departments in cities, counties, and by California’s Department of Transportation (Caltrans).
Many leaders across the agencies themselves, understand that the unintegrated nature of the region’s transport system presents a fundamental and significant barrier to the strategic interagency alignment urgently required to progress actions which reduce the Bay Area’s transport greenhouse gas emissions.
Overcoming complexity
Delivering on net zero ambitions requires major transformation and highly coordinated mobilisation within all sectors. Given the high degree of complexity and generally unclear power structures governing day-to-day activities in these sectors – how can we hope to achieve our net zero targets in time?
It’s worth recalling that such transformative change and coordination across an entire sector due to changes in national priorities is not wholly unprecedented. Between 1968 – 1976, the UK made a national switch from town gas to natural gas to generate power. The process was facilitated by the nationalisation of the gas industry under the Gas Act, which amalgamated 1000 privately owned and municipal gas companies into 12 Gas Boards with a Central Gas Council.
In order to deliver the massive level of change required for decarbonising entire sectors of the economy, the net zero transition will require a similar degree of reorganisation as this historical precedent.
Taking the systems view
To meet net zero targets in complex economic sectors, we argue that taking a ‘systems view’ is vital. This approach can help policymakers better understand where change needs to be made in their sector, and how decision making and resources need to be directed to achieve net zero goals in time. This view brings transparency to both priorities and constraints, enabling consensus-building among key stakeholders, who otherwise have varying levels of understanding of the overall sector they work in or have influence over.
In our research we illustrate ‘system maps’ of the transport and energy sectors in Britain. These maps present a view of the core functions (components) and stakeholders that currently define these sectors, and how roles and responsibilities connect, overlap, align, and intersect. These maps outline how different aspects of the sector currently function, their respective priorities, persons responsible, allowing clearer identification of changes required (and their potential implications) as a net zero target becomes a key priority across the sector.
The maps are supplemented with a summary of the core systemic, cross-organisational challenges facing the transport and energy sectors in Britain. While progress is being made to reduce emissions in both of these sectors, in this featured research we focus specifically on issues that still lack oversight and accountability from decision makers in the sector, and require a clearer plan of action for resolution.
While the research we present here is specific to the energy and transport sectors in Britain, this approach based on systems mapping is effective in identifying key cross-cutting challenges.